2010-01-09

The Expectation Analysis Experiment - Part 1


Before you read this, take a look at this.


I will play the following deck this Saturday:



Deck Name : Aztec Woodcutting
Author : Stefan Karlsson


Crypt (12 vampires) Capacity min: 3 max: 10 average: 7.08333

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5x Mictlantecuhtli 10 ANI FOR POT THA pre pro Gangrel:5
1x Jayakumar 6 ANI FOR chi tha Ravnos:5

1x Juniper 6 FOR ani dom pre Ventrue:4
1x Callirus 5 CHI FOR ani Ravnos:4
1x Kikiyaon, The 5 FOR abo ani Akunanse:4

1x Rathmere 5 FOR ani pro Gangrel:5
1x Solomon Batanea 5 AUS FOR nec Harbinger:4
1x Rosemarie 3 FOR mel Daughter :4


Library (77 cards)

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Action (6)

6x Magic of the Smith

Action Modifier (25)
2x Enkil Cog
23x Freak Drive

Combat (22)
5x Hidden Strength
7x Indomitability
10x Taste of Vitae

Equipment (6)
1x Codex of the Edenic Groundskeepers
1x Heart of Nizchetus
1x Ivory Bow
1x Sargon Fragment, The
2x Talbot's Chainsaw

Event (2)

1x Dragonbound
1x Scourge of the Enochians


Master (15)
1x Anarch Troublemaker

2x Fame
1x Giant's Blood
2x Haven Uncovered

1x Heidelberg Castle, Germany
2x Pentex(TM) Subversion
1x Tension in the Ranks
5x Villein

Retainer (1)

1x Dog Pack





Overview
The general idea is to bring out Mictlantecuhtli and play Magic of the Smith to get Talbot's Chainsaw. Mictlantecuhtli's ability to ignore damage from weapons makes him immune to the negative effects of Talbot's Chainsaw in a much more reliable way than Ambrosius, Ponticulus or Tye Cooper. The downside is of course that he is a 10-cap but hopefully it will be made up for in this deck.
I have seen (and tried) other versions of the Mictlantecuhtli/Talbot's Chainsaw-deck but in my opinion they tend to pack way too many different elements. I have tried to reduce the number of elements for maximum effect of the combo. The saw in itself is great in combat and together with the prevent-cards that grants a press it's even better. Add Taste of Vitae and there should be a working blood gaining module. Since we are already using Fortitude, Freak Drive comes to mind. Instead of using rush cards in addition to the saw's in-built rush why not let Mictlantecuhtli's friends borrow the saw and rush with it as well?
The really neat thing is that when your prey is out of minions its time to Magic of the Smith to get Codex of the Edenic Groundskeepers. Now all your vampires can use the same module they use to rush to bleed for 4 each. A nice addition to the slow ousting mechanisms of combat decks, don't you think?


Weaknesses
This deck dies if it faces too many destroy equipment effects. The cards I'm especially worried about are Canine Horde, Heroic Might, Anarch Troublemaker and Loss. A solution and plan B could be to include more rushes but I think the deck's flow will be way too crippled if I do so I have to live with that I'm going to be destroyed in probably at least one game this Saturday. The only counters for this I'm packing is an additional copy of Talbot's Chainsaw, The Sargon Fragment and Anarch Troublemaker for contest.

Animalism combat may be a pain to handle but if there aren't too many Canine Horde I should be able to survive it. Especially if I get the Ivory Bow. The same goes for Potence combat but I think I will be able to survive that as well.
A deck has to be very combat ends-heavy to withstand this deck so unless I see Rachel Brandywine or Henry Taylor I wont be worrying that much.
Of course I will have problems facing a really fast and agressive predator but every deck has the same problems. If I survive long enough to get my first round with Mictlantecuhtli in the minion phase I should do just fine.
One last big problem is if anyone's contesting Talbot's Chainsaw but every deck with any unique key elements suffer this so nothing much to be done about it.

General play
In the beginning of each game I will discard until I have Villein and Magic of the Smith in hand. I need to get some of that 10 invested pool on Mictlantecuhtli back as soon as possible and I need the Chainsaw equipped as fast as possible.
I will then start rushing first to survive my predator and then to crush my first prey. If the situation demands, I will backoust without hesitation. I will even backoust the whole table if needed. The most comfortable situation is of course if I can oust my first prey and then focus on maintaining table balance and slowly take control towards a game win with as many victory points as possible. When I have tried out this deck and it has got an early victory point I have suffered some table hate so there might occur situations when I have to take it easy and pretend I have a worse card flow than I actually have.
I probably need to be ready to use my diplomatic skills a lot and I have to be hard on myself and let some victory points go to other players, even my prey if my grand prey is something I can't handle.
After Mictlantecuhtli I need at least one other vampire but I can't go to low on pool even if my predator hasn't got a single minion in play. That can risk someone cross-table finding a chance to oust me, something that actually almost happened in one of this deck's try out-games.

Metagame
I expect this to be a small tournament with about 12-15 people attending. There will be a spread in deck types and qualities from tier 1 to untested experiments as usual in our tournaments and I will have to deploy different tactics at different seatings. My realistic plan is to take 2 game wins and at least 6 victory points to be able to at least influence my seating in the finals. When a deck like this reaches the finals, risk is a conspiracy is formed to kill it especially if it is the only combat deck. I have to be very cool and perhaps pretend my card flow is worse than it is to be able to strike at the right moment. Maybe I'll pretend not to draw any Magic of the Smith early if my predator isn't too fast.

Card by card

Lastly I will list the cards section by section and comment their existence and numbers below:



Crypt (12 vampires) Capacity min: 3 max: 10 average: 7.08333
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5x Mictlantecuhtli 10 ANI FOR POT THA pre pro Gangrel:5
1x Jayakumar 6 ANI FOR chi tha Ravnos:5
1x Juniper 6 FOR ani dom pre Ventrue:4
1x Callirus 5 CHI FOR ani Ravnos:4
1x Kikiyaon, The 5 FOR abo ani Akunanse:4
1x Rathmere 5 FOR ani pro Gangrel:5
1x Solomon Batanea 5 AUS FOR nec Harbinger:4
1x Rosemarie 3 FOR mel Daughter :4



5 copies is the standard Star Vampire amount and nothing to argue about. The rest of the Vampires all have FOR and the only one below cap 5 is Rosemarie. Her drawback is made up for by her capacity. There are plenty of 5-caps with FOR and I choose those whose special abilities were at least a little useful. The 6-caps are there because their abilities are simply worth an extra transfer and pool.



Action (6)
6x Magic of the Smith



I figure six is a good number. I won't draw it too late and I won't draw too many.



Action Modifier (25)
2x Enkil Cog
23x Freak Drive



Enkil Cog is great in this deck. The extra copy gives me a good chance of seeing it in the first half of the game but I can't include any more because of jamming-risk. Just the possibility to have Mictlantecuhtli untapped and being able to threat to act can be gold worth when it comes to chainsaw diplomacy. The number of Freak Drives is what I have been struggling with the most with this deck. I started out with 20 in a 80-card deck simply because I wanted every fourth card to be a Freak Drive. As I reduced other cards I kept the 20 and I have never been too low on Freak Drives for the deck to work. The reason for adding 3 more in this final version is that I hesitate too often when I need to discard a copy and I rarely put them back in the library via Heart of Nizchetus. That can make me having too few end game. And if three more are too many this deck don't have any problems in passing the classical "hunt-freak drive"-trick.



Combat (22)
5x Hidden Strength
7x Indomitability
10x Taste of Vitae



Indomitability is a little bit better than Hidden Strength for this deck because I can press even when not preventing. Hidden Strength's opportunity to prevent more than one damage can be useful though. 12 prevent/press-cards is a good number for the flow of this deck. The number of tastes seems fine but its very hard to know. In some games 10 are way too many and in some way too few.



Equipment (6)
1x Codex of the Edenic Groundskeepers
1x Heart of Nizchetus
1x Ivory Bow
1x Sargon Fragment, The
2x Talbot's Chainsaw



The Codex is a great for ousting. Every deck with Magic of the Smith should include the Heart of Cheating so that's a no-brainer. The Ivory Bow is there to threat at range and to put Arika with 11 blood but no Majesty in hand to torpor for a blood-gaining diablerie. Two copies of Talbot's Chainsaw is needed to be sure to get it and The Sargon Fragment is there to pick up the saw if all fails.



Event (2)
1x Dragonbound
1x Scourge of the Enochians



Dragonbound won't see play every game but in some situations it is too good not to be included. Scourge of the Enochians is simply there to save some rushes.



Master (15)
1x Anarch Troublemaker
2x Fame
1x Giant's Blood
2x Haven Uncovered
1x Heidelberg Castle, Germany
2x Pentex(TM) Subversion
1x Tension in the Ranks
5x Villein



Anarch Troublemaker is there for contesting only. I will not use its benefits if its not a very worthwhile move. Two Fames seems about right as ousting-help. The Giant's Blood is a last minute addition that is superb in about one out of five games and useless in the others. I will either curse of praise this choice after the tournament. Two Haven Uncovered maybe seems a little low in addition to the saw but I feel I don't need more. The Pentexes are actually there more for offence than defence. This is probably one of few superstar combat decks that don't die to Pentex. If Mictelantecuhtli is Pentexed my other vampires do his work almost as good as long as he is ready and takes the penalty during the untap phases. Pentex is a great card to put on one of my predator's minions to save me some time and/or pool or on a especially disturbing minion that denies my deck to work properly. Tension in the Ranks is another addition to the ousting module and the 5 Villeins and ousting are my only pool gain sources. 5 might seem a little low but I should see one early enough and as I said before - I don't want to jam.



Retainer (1)
1x Dog Pack



Will not be used in most games but when I face heavy combat ends it is worth a lot.



3 comments:

  1. I like the deck concept in general, but I also think both the crypt and library could be improved. I would drop at least 2 Taste of Vitae and 5-8 Freak Drive. Instead I would add 6 rush actions, e.g. Harass, so you can actually multi-rush with Mictlantecuhtli. Also you underutilize your master card section, since you play only 10 regular master plus 5 trifles, I would add at least one Monster.

    Cryptwise I would switch to vampire with tha/for like Antonio d'Erlette and Claus Wegner (both 5 caps), so these guys can fetch other equipment. This would also allow you to include some Dominate bleed, not many but 4-5 should be enough.

    But we'll see how you did in the tournament first, I guess. Good luck!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yes there should probably be some more ways to rush since I struggled the whole tournament to get and keep the saw. Some Freak Drives could have been dropped but I was always low on blood so removing any Taste of Vitae is no option. Monster I completely missed in the creation of this deck and of course it should have been there.
    Having too few guys with THA was never an issue and I shouldn't need any dominate to be able to oust, I think the crypt worked out fine.
    But this deck's Achilles' heel is to easy and hurtful to hit so it fades into memory as yet another failure.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hello,
    Maybe a lot of time passes from your initial post but I like to commnet thar I make a very similar deck to yours and they are similar in concept. I taked a few ideas from you so may be I can give you something. I used THA as a a combat discipline, especialy in second round with Drain essence, that cannot be prevented by fortitude, is ranged and gives you a lot of useful blood. I used Lord ephrain (to cicle the magic of the smith, Bum rush, etc) and Antonio dÈrlette. I put two Form of mist to stop the people blocking my actions of entering combat (talbot - press -talbot - pres - form of mist and continues the action to enter combat

    ReplyDelete